Yesterday turned out to be one of the more frustrating selling into a buyer day scenarios. Fortunately, we happened not to be around to trade it. However, in the interests of maintaining the integrity of the system being demonstrated, here are the 3 entries of yesterday. Of the three, at least one and possibly 2 permitted a scalp exit. It would have closed the day on perhaps a 0.4% loss.
Today is a buyer day. As of now, there have been 2 buys which would have made back most of the losses from the previous day (not being at the screen, we also missed the gains from those two signals). There have been scalp outs on both. We are now in the territory of the equity curve where the system takes small gains and losses, more or less treading water until it catches a good trending trade.
Thursday, 10 January 2013
Wednesday, 9 January 2013
Today is another seller day on the EURUSD. GBPUSD has been doing better on the Navigator in the past two days, although the Euro performance has been well acceptable at about breakeven. Since the key is consistency, we are not going to switch horses mid-stream. It is simply the statistical probabilities coming back into line after an exceptionally good performance by the Euro last week.
The third sell did it and looks to be the high of the day. We got shaken out about 30 pips in profit on the second position, making back most of the losses from yesterday.
A third sell was initiated by the 15M Time Navigator. It has been scaled out profitably and so we shall see if this turns out to be the downtrend of the day.
The second sell was closed for a very small profit following the dangerous looking oversized green candlestick against it. The conditions are still in place for a sell, so there may well be a third sell. Hopefully, this does not turn into a complex consolidation day.
The second sell of the day has scaled out some profit and is now at breakeven. With some luck, this will begin the downtrend of the day.
Tuesday, 8 January 2013
The first sell was finally stopped out for a 6 pip loss - 0.2% of the account and we are waiting for the next entry. Again, it will hopefully be a full risk entry in a favourable position. There have been quite a few half risk positions of late.
As is typical for a day after a range reversal of bias day, the sell came early today, albeit on half risk. These days tend to run away quickly with no warning sometimes, so it is important that every trade is taken. The bias is, as stated, to sell.
The fifth buy worked out yesterday, covering most of the losses on the day. Today is a seller day on EURUSD.
It is most unusual to have a fifth buy without triggering the maximum loss levels safeguard for the day, but the 15M Time Navigator has fired off a signal, so here goes.
Score so far:
2 reduced half risk losses
2 minor gains
1 loss from the Grand Navigator
Net: About 0.7% down on the day
The buy stopped out after all. Oh well. Next!
The 15M Time Navigator is not showing buys, but the Grand Navigator signalled a buy entry on this one. Grand Navigator entries are not normally put on the blog, but as this was a particularly choppy day, it seems interesting to see how the Grand Navigator will fare when not aligned with the 15M Time Navigator on its home ground of the 15M charts.
The fourth try ended up about breakeven. There was a scalp out for a positive 12 pips, but then the trade turned south and began the move down, triggering the trailing stop. Net, this was a losing day of about 0.3% due to the first two losing trades. The buy bias will continue to remain in play until the day's end.
The level of support rejected price, and so we're in at the indicated price level (very close to the stop loss) on half risk after all.
The Navigator did trigger a buy, but thanks to the adverse German Factory Orders, price promptly plummeted below even the reasonable buy price and stop loss, and so this trade has been aborted. It is quite likely now that the direction of the higher order timeframes will exert their influence and thus the fourth buy of the day, if it happens at all, will occur quite late, likely as not.
The Navigator got stopped out on the third try with a slight profit. The Euro now appears to be trying for the fourth time to break resistance. Market coordination is slightly off amongst the majors, but this is a make or break level which could go either way. The hourly bias is down and the 4-hourly is up but very barely. If this next entry appears, it will be taken, but certainly on half risk, and will be managed closely!
Half the position has been scalped out at about 10 pips' profit. It is still standing at a net loss on the day so far but this entry will probably be closed at least at breakeven now.
This one is again a half-risk buy, having run off on a long candle. The pullback pricing buy entry was 1.3118, but it is still at half risk.
Monday, 7 January 2013
The second half-risk buy of the day has also stopped out, somewhat unsurprisingly. Thankfully, both were on half the risk and on the usual further reduced risk parameters. The conditions of a buy are still in place, so hopefully there will be a full risk buy later in the day at a better price position.
EURUSD triggered the stop by a hair and then promptly triggered the second half-risk buy. So, we are in again at half the usual risk due to the relatively unfavourable positioning of price.
There was a half-risk buy signal that looks like it is about to be stopped out at the top of the hour. It is threatening the stop loss condition but currently has not stopped out as yet. If it does get stopped out, we will take the next buy signal as the conditions for a buy are still in place.
It was a pity that the Navigator was shaken out of the nice upward movement on EURUSD at the end of the day just before it ran. Nonetheless, it was not a losing day. Today is also a buyer day on the Euro. There are no clear signals as yet.
Sunday, 6 January 2013
The remainder of the position was closed out at the secondary target at 1.3054. Although not the most profitable of trades, it still kept above the profit score positive.
The second buy took some time to work out but it has finally been scaled out, if only for the smallest of profits. The remainder will be trailed and targetted using the usual method.
It is a buyer day today, and a trade has already occurred. How it works out remains to be seen, but part of the position has already been scaled out.
Friday, 4 January 2013
Thursday, 3 January 2013
Today is setting up to be a seller day on the Navigator, and again looks like one of those days when it might trigger early.
Although these trades were not announced at the time they were taken, they fulfilled the requirements for the 15M Time Navigator, and are an example of an excellent day.
Wednesday, 2 January 2013
The early sell signal triggered as anticipated, and somewhat surprisingly worked out. Just as well we stuck to the rules.
After a roller coaster day yesterday in which the Navigator did remarkably well, today is set up to be a sell day. It looks like it may give a false signal early in the day, but the trade entry rules are well, rules. Trade management will be defensive if the trade triggers.
Today was a sell day, and the sell point worked out fine. However, due to disruptions in data, the trade was not called earlier and so this chart is for information purposes only. The trade was not taken.